The new year is upon as and I'm doubtful what the new year is going to bring us in terms of peace in my beloved country. For the last 18 years, the Somali people have been searching for a breakthrough in the country's political stalemate and have been optimistic as the time progressed. 18 years is too long for a country marred with anarchy, corruption and violence. I have always been optimistic about the future of my country and for as long as I can remember I have always been hopeful everytime a national conference for reconciliation and unity is held. After following few of these conferences I started to lose hope for the country since those conferences of trying to establish a national government ended in failure. In 2000, a Transitional National Government (TNG) was established with Abdiqasim Hassan as an interim president. the TNG had a mandate of establishing political institutions in a country ruled by warlords. Then, I prayed for the success of this government institution and hoped my country can rise from the rubbles and move forward once for all. When the TNG collapsed, I did not give too much thinking of the reasons behind its failure. Just like the thousands of Somalis in the diaspora I was disappointed by those developments and again hoped for the future. In 2004 after careful negotiations, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was created with Abdullahi Yusuf as the President. In the beginning, I was not sure if this institution could succeed unlike dozens past attempts. The TFG invited the Ethiopian army to help them exert control in the capital and get rid of the Islamic Courts who captured much of the southern regions in 2006. In December 2007, The TFG was in Mogadishu and finally the country can once again try to work towards stabilization. Soon after, the deposed Islamists started to carry out attacks on government and Ethiopian troops. The TFG pleaded with the international community for help and possibly send a strong contingent of United Nations (UN) peacekeepers to the volatile country. Once again the international community turned its back on Somalia. The African Union (AU) pledged to send 8000 troops to the country but only few countries such as Uganda and Burundi kept their promises and sent troops to Somalia. The small AU force which lacks equipment is only confined to their bases and have not helped quell the violence. The TFG from the beginning faced stiff opposition and never had the chance of bringing stability to the country. To top that, the TFG has been marred with political deadlock between its President and the Prime Minister. When Prime Minister Ghedi Was replaced by Nuur Cadde I became hopeful that the TFG can once again focus on negotiating with its opposition groups that now consist of a divided Islamic Courts, one side led by a moderate Islamist Sheikh Shariff and another led by a more extremist Sheikh Aweys who seems to support a violent extemist militant wing named Al Shabaab. Only the moderate Islamists showed up to the political table and were ready for negotiations. The Djibouti Conference was long and numerous times ended up in a deadlock. Once the Djibouti Agreement was finalized and its content was released to the public, the TFG embarked on another political deadlock featuring the same heads. President Abdullahi Yusuf and his Prime Minister, this time the President charged that the Djibouti agreement will only be clan based and open room for corruption and inequality. The main outcome of the Djibouti Agreement is the doubling of the Parliamentary seats of 275 with the opposition getting 200 seats and 75 seats being allocated to the civil society and the diaspora. I am not sure if the Djibouti Agreement is the right choice for Somalia's future as it will bring the number of Parliamentarians to 550 which is very high for a country like Somalia. Also the additional seats can potentially cause more political deadlock as the the TFG is divided so is the opposition side. In the end, President Abdullahi Yusuf resigned following a much publicized disagreements with his Prime Minister Nuur Cadde. In the end I applaud Abdullahi Yusuf for stepping aside ending the deadlock. The year is coming to a close and Somalia's political scene is now more complicated than ever. There is a big chance the country can embark on another deadly civil war that will be more distastrous than ever or a chance for stability and tranquility never been experienced in the last 18 years. The big question is what will 2009 bring to Somalia?
